Sunday, March 4, 2007

Market Forecast

It's weird, I miss one day of posting, and I start feeling guilty.

Anyway, here's are my market thoughts:

1) You've got short-term bond yields increasing, with long-term bond yields decreasing, indicating less confidence in the stock market, and a willingness to pay for essentially riskless investments like bonds.

2) Gold price is inching up slowly, while oil prices are falling slightly. Both seem to contradict the idea that the market believes we are entering a recession. But I think the most likely affect is small investors are still unsure about the market, and want wait and see, rather than liquidate and buy up commodities like gold.

3) With the increased crackdown from US regulators on subprime mortgages and last week's market results, we'll probably see another decline in major bank stocks.

Conclusion: Going to be an up and down day, but at the bell, the market will fall a little bit.

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