Goodbye until the New Year!

Folks, its been an interesting year.

I have enjoyed blogging so far and will continue this blog next year.

As I ponder the next few days, I realize I should take time off to focus on family and celebrating the New Year, and leave the world of personal finance behind... for a little while.

Come the first week of January, expect my December '07 networth status, and a complete analysis of my spending pattern for '07. I will also be looking at my spending and searching for ways to save more.

I have yet to arrive upon a new year's resolution, but suffice to say, I started really doing resolutions two years ago, and I have stuck to both of them: (1) track all expenses, and (2) get a job. On the top of my list of course are the usuals: win the lottery, learn to dance, and get healthier. There are also realistic ones, like pass a CFA test and get a promotion. Again, I don't really know, so be ready for that in the new year.

Otherwise, New Year's Eve should be interesting. I've shelled out $200 to try an all-inclusive nightclub outing in NYC. If I can avoid the Irish flu, I'll be back to work Jan 2.

Hope you all have a safe and happy time partying.

PS - Don't spend TOO much!
PSS - And that's the last personal finance advice I'll give this year.

Rally Assassinated

Nothing ruins the economy more than social strife. Nothing could have been worse for the Santa Claus rally than the assassination of Benazair Bhutto, former Pakistani prime minister and leading candidate for this year's election.

With her death, I find myself in an odd place. First, this is my first foray into politics on this blog. Second, it significantly increases the uncertainty of the future, and therefore can only negatively impact the global economy, and as a result, global stock markets.

My politics and economics are always tied together. At a time when the US is gearing up for its primary elections, political unrest around the world will greatly weigh on the minds of average citizens, far more than usual. This will cause voters to consider strengthening our terrorism "war", and thus risking increased anti-US sentiment, which will result in decreased business.

Rather today's news will impact the market for long-run remains with how Mussaraf deals with the riots today, and what he does about the coming elections. I expect martial law to be declared and elections to be postponed. This is the predictable outcome and would calm markets.

However, if Mussaraf proceeds, then any election result will cause massive turmoil in the country, and fears will run rampant for at least the next month, devestating our struggling stock market.

Santa Claus Rally: Can you ride along?

Now that we're in the stretch between Christmas and the New Year, we are officially in the span in which an annual market phenomenon occurs: the Santa Claus rally.

Today was a good, if mild, start to the rally, with technology (and the Nasdaq), leading the way. From now until year end, I'd expect technology and financial services to rise, as they have been the hardest hit.

The big financials still have a huge hole to dig themselves out of. However, I think their future is bright. While they cannot continue making obscene amounts of money from subprime mortgages and the securitization market, they will still truck home cash to every investor.

For this reason, I bought XLF today. XLF is an ETF index of financial stocks, with big names such as Merril Lynch, Goldman, Bank of America, and Citigroup. This ETF has been hammered this year, losing about 17% of its value. I foresee a bounch back in most of the financials within a year.

And of course, my consistent favorite QQQQ (ETF of Nasdaq), continues to be another recommended buy.

Happy Holidays!

Increased liquidity eases fears

Not out of the woods yet, but the extra money being pumped into global corporations is helping to ease market fears.

Markets had another V-shaped day, centered around noon. I've been basing my strategies on that recently. Around noon US EST, England's markets close, and it seems to drive US markets down. As the afternoon rolls around, they go right back up. Its been two days of this (and many times over the last 5 months), and there's no particular reason to believe this won't continue.

For anyone who trades in indexes, this kind of predictability is a real money maker.