Tuesday, November 27, 2007

The beggining or a fluke?

With the ridiculous volatility of the market these days, was today really a result of Citigroup's $7.5 billion cash infusion (really a regular corporate bond sale) which has completely wiped out all subprime fears or is today another example of daily short-term market reactions that has characterized the last month of market movements?

Around midday, I was ready to believe in my own cynicism. The market started plummeting, sputtered out, see-sawed, and then dropped for a while. An hour before the end of day, the market caught itself and shot up to close near the day's highs.

While I'm not a 100% believer in the technicals, I do believe that a study of market movement does give a good indication for what the market is thinking in the short-term. In my mind, such a dip was initially caused by investors who had been holding their breath for a long time to see just their investment come back, followed by the uptick representing other investors who finally saw a bottom and realized just how oversold the market really is.

At the same time, another data point related to the subprime market will be released tomorrow, existing home sales. This could have an adverse affect if the trend is sharply downward.

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