Thursday, September 20, 2007

-10% to +12% gains in 3 days (that story is in the 3rd paragraph)

There has been a whirlwind of interesting events that have transpired in the last week. Some I can't talk about until I know for sure. But in terms of my finances, and mainly my trading, I can.

Finance-wise, I have been managing to stay within my budget. This has been helped by a combination of seeing the parents more during meal times, and just general life busy-ness preventing me from spending much money. One large upside though was a visit to the casino, which netted me about $400 in extra spending money.

On the trading side, I had been down about 10% on this past Monday. I had hoped for a 25bps decrease in the Fed Fund rate to help out my portfolio, and when a 50bps cut was announced, by portfolio roared back. I started unwinding my portfolio Tuesday, and by yesterday, I was completely out of all my long positions by around 11:30am. Selling had netted be a positive 12% gain on my total investment.

Not bad. And what a relief.

But then I started to think. I knew that the rally had really been artificial, because after all, what does a 50bps rate cut mean? Realistically, nothing much different from 25. Around noon I started buying short positions, and the market started to dip. By the end of the day, by short positions were ahead by about 5%.

The market continued its down slide today, and my shorts are looking better and better. My play here is to sell around the end of the day tomorrow, and then go long again, since I think by Friday, the market well have corrected itself past the Fed cut's temporary boost.

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